Forecasts for Vietnam’s economy post-pandemic

A major change that may occur in Vietnam’s economy after the pandemic is under control is the emergence of an ecosystem that combines different industries, thereby creating new, game-changing companies.


Key trends in the post-pandemic economy


Mr. Bruce Delteil, General Manager of McKinsey & Company Vietnam, assessed that in terms of economic structure, the industries that are growing at an exponential rate can be securities and e-commerce. As for investment activities, investors can continue their intended projects as before the pandemic, but will be more cautious.


Regarding production, Covid-19 has changed some trends and in the future, Vietnam may create higher value in this field. In addition, the digital economy, financial services, and technology adoption in this country are happening in an "unprecedented" way and on a larger scale many other countries.


Mr. Bruce Delteil said that Covid-19 will change Vietnam's economy with the emergence of a number of key trends including strong digital transformation, changing consumer behavior, changing ways of working, higher environmental, social and governance standards, as well as omnichannel.


For example, a recent survey by Kanta WorldPanel shows that nearly 80% of Vietnamese households will shop in a way that is less impulsive and more aware of the products they buy than before. This leads to a shift in consumer behavior towards an emphasis on direct value.


The business model of companies will therefore change to accommodate new behaviors, promoting experiences across channels and regions. In addition, a major change in the post-pandemic economy is the emergence of ecosystems that combine different industries, such as fintech in financial services. Mr. Bruce Delteil emphasized that this change can create new companies that change the features of some fields.


On top of that, technology and productivity will be the deciding factors to heal the supply chain when demand recovers. McKinsey's survey shows that Vietnam is ready to apply new technology, which means it is ready for change.


Driving force for economic growth after Covid-19


IFC in its recent assessment of the private sector emphasized that Vietnam's sustainable growth in the future will depend on the transition to private investment associated with efficiency, innovation, and increased productivity.


During the post-Covid-19 recovery period, facilitating the development of a dynamic, diverse and highly productive private sector is an imperative task for Vietnam, as public resources become scarce.


For Vietnam, the path to becoming a high-income country means enhancing added value in existing fields, moving to a higher level in the global value chain, diversifying economic sectors as well as new markets, while ensuring sustainable development and digitalization of the economy.


SSI Securities, one of the biggest securities companies in Vietnam, forecast that the macroeconomic outlook for 2022 will be more positive. There will be no social-distancing measures that are as strict as in 2021.


Three factors that will create positivity in 2022 are higher vaccination rates, the experience of companies in vaccine supply, and medical advances that can provide Covid-19 drugs at an affordable price.


Vietnam's growth drivers will include the return of major economies, effective free trade agreements, in particular RCEP, along with the economic stimulus package expected to be approved in January next year.


SSI representative forecasts that Vietnam's GDP growth in 2022 will be around 6 - 6.5%, in the context that global growth may slow down in 2022.


Source: McKinsey & Company Vietnam, SSI Securities


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