Romania has shown solid growth in recent years, driven mainly by the growing domestic demand. In 2017, GDP increased by almost 7%, mainly due to the strong growth of private consumption, the increase in wages and the decrease in unemployment.
However, the latest report released by Crédito y Caución predicts that GDP will slow down appreciably in 2018 and 2019, in a context of a cooling of domestic demand, an increase in interest rates to combat inflation and a slowdown in exports due to the weak demand in the euro zone.
The Romanian financial sector, which started in 2016 an improvement in its capital adequacy ratios and falling delinquency, is still subject to a high credit risk. The budget deficit grew in 2016 and 2017 due to a reduction in indirect taxes and the expansion of public spending. The report by the leading credit insurer in Spain forecasts that in 2018 and 2019 the deficit will increase even more due to expansive fiscal policies, although the level of public debt, around 38%, remains moderate.
Crédito y Caución points out that Romania is still exposed to some important vulnerabilities. Bureaucracy and corruption still hinder the country's economic development. The current account deficit has again risen above 3% of GDP in 2017 and is expected to grow further in 2018 and 2019 due to the high demand for imports. At the same time, the currency is subject to some volatility, and the country remains vulnerable to capital outflows. At the same time, there are some solid cushions, such as abundant international currency reserves, low public debt and flexibility of the exchange rate.
About Crédito y Caución
Crédito y Caución is the leading brand of domestic credit and export insurance in Spain since its foundation in 1929. With a market share of 51%, it has been contributing to the growth of companies for almost 90 years, protecting them from the risks of default associated with their sales on credit for goods and services. The Credit and Caution brand is present in Spain, Portugal and Brazil. In the rest of the world we operate as Atradius. With a global market share of 24%, we are a global credit insurance operator present in more than 50 countries. Our activity consolidates within the Catalana Occidente Group.
Write a comment